EUR/USD stupidity

I will take a short trade @ 1.5620, stop @ 1.5665. Target still below 1.5000.

I got my ass handed to me today. Nevertheless, with the EUR/USD so overbought and so close to completing Wave5, I'm going to try calling the top again.

Take a look at the daily chart above. The channel top is at 1.5640 today. RSI is near 80, a historical topping point. This is certainly a nice (hopefully terminal) thrust out of the triangle.

The 30-min chart sheds some light as to why my trade from yesterday failed so miserably. The correction from 1.5459 was a 3-wave irregular flat. WaveB slightly exceeded the top of WaveA, and WaveC undercut WaveA. Typical... it's a perfect way for the market to wash out weak investors. In this pattern WaveC normally takes shape in 5-waves. I was preoccupied with the 5-waves alone instead of looking at the broader pattern.

Here are my resistance calculations:

  • 1.5640: Channel top
  • 1.5631: Weekly R2 pivot point
  • 1.5609: Monthly M4 pivot point
  • 1.5599: Wave5 = Wave1
  • =======================
  • 1.5620: Average

Thus my entry is at 1.5620, stop above the highest resistance level.

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