Update of trade from 3/6/08, @ 10:17am: I was stopped out at the top of the move today for -23pips.
Not too bad in absolute terms, but horrible considering the upmove ended 20pips later and then price dropped 200+ pips. Yesterday, I couldn't help but feel smug for calling the top. I've noticed that whenever I feel really good and carefree about a trade, I usually get screwed.
Anyway, I am now very confident that a top is in place. My plan will be to go short on a 3-wave retracement of the 5-wave down move from 1.5495. My target is still below 1.5000.
In addition to having 5-waves up, there are two strong indicators for a trend reversal. First, there is clear MACD and RSI divergence. Also, notice that two bearish engulfing candles have occured on supposedly dollar-negative news: NFP's on Friday, and today's liquidity injection (creating and lending new money should be inflationary for the dollar). That tells me that the dollar is oversold.
I will post my exact trade detail later on, as I am unsure of my specific entry and stop at the moment.