2/07/2009

Is inflation going to consume the US economy?

With Obama's new stimulus package nearly signed into law, it's no wonder that analysts are worried that we'll experience hyperinflation on the back of massive government deficits. However, when I start hearing the same story about how Gold/Silver are so cheap, or "I'll sell at $3000/oz", etc., I think the precious metals bear market isn't over yet. From my analysis, I believe Silver is near a top and should begin to fall to new lows in the coming months.

You can clearly see a 5-wave decline from the March 2008 peak. 5-wave moves are rarely terminal (i.e. the end of the trend). There should be another 5-wave leg down before the overall downtrend finishes. I think SLV will find strong resistance in the $13-14 range because there is the 50% fib, the Wave4 top, and the channel top. Then, it should start downtrending to below $8. Maybe 2-3 years from now, we'll get hyperinflation; but on the short to medium term, I believe all the inflation-bugs need to get shaken out.