Notice on this long-term chart that XLF is backtesting some strong trendlines. These should provide overhead resistance.
I think XLF should print a top in the $14-16 range and then start a downtrend back to the $10 range. I will start scaling in short positions in this zone.
On the daily chart, it definately looks like XLF is carving out an ABC, especially considering that price busted above $13 without a pullback beforehand. Furthermore, price is going parabolic into WaveC which tells me that sentiment is becoming too bullish. We could see price rally into the $16 zone, but there should be a $3-6+ correction soon.