On the 4-hr chart above, you can see that potentially 5-waves are complete from 1.4438. Wave5 was a spike (hammer candle) coupled with MACD and RSI divergence.
On the 15-min chart, several bearish signs are apparent: first, there is a Head and Shoulders pattern. A break through the neckline @ 1.5170 should lead to lower prices. Second, the decline from the all-time high of 1.5275 was in 5-waves, followed by a drawn out 3-wave correction which stopped at the 78.6% fibo. My plan is to go short on a break of Waveb and the H&S neckline. My stop will be tight, as I have an alternate Wave count that is still potentially bullish.
Two other events are bearish for the EUR/USD: GLD had its first 5-wave downside move today. EUR/USD has a .84 correlation with GLD. Also, retail long positions in the EUR/USD have shot up more than 50% since last week. All my friends are talking about the dollar's weakness and GLD's strength. Could this be the end of the uptrend?