EUR/USD Short Trade

I have been watching the EUR/USD, and it is showing signs of topping. I will place a short entry at 1.5168, stop @ 1.5207. I will move my stop to breakeven on a break below 1.5156. My initial target is below 1.5000.

On the 4-hr chart above, you can see that potentially 5-waves are complete from 1.4438. Wave5 was a spike (hammer candle) coupled with MACD and RSI divergence.

On the 15-min chart, several bearish signs are apparent: first, there is a Head and Shoulders pattern. A break through the neckline @ 1.5170 should lead to lower prices. Second, the decline from the all-time high of 1.5275 was in 5-waves, followed by a drawn out 3-wave correction which stopped at the 78.6% fibo. My plan is to go short on a break of Waveb and the H&S neckline. My stop will be tight, as I have an alternate Wave count that is still potentially bullish.

Two other events are bearish for the EUR/USD: GLD had its first 5-wave downside move today. EUR/USD has a .84 correlation with GLD. Also, retail long positions in the EUR/USD have shot up more than 50% since last week. All my friends are talking about the dollar's weakness and GLD's strength. Could this be the end of the uptrend?

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