3/11/2008

EUR/USD Short Entry

I will take a short position @ 1.5385, stop @ 1.5505. My target is still below 1.5000.

I was a bit surprised to see the 1.5462 high taken out because the drop from that level was in 5-waves. In retrospect, I see why it was possible. The first drop 1.5462 was in 5-waves, but that was only Wave-a in a larger abc correction. A final Wave-v thrust took place (stopping out everyone like me) before reversing sharply.

With a sharp 5-wave bearish pattern, I am now very confident that a top is in place. There is resistance in the 1.5375-5405 region, including the 50% fibo level, the Wave4 top, the weekly M3 pivot point, and the Wavec=Wavea level. Thus I will enter short there with a stop above 1.5500, as I don't think we will hit that level again.

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