The ascent from 1.1640 to 1.2976 was Wave1 (with a truncated Wave-v). I am making this assumption because Wave-v subdivided into 5-waves and Wave-v was roughly 38.2% of the entire wave (a common ratio for impulse waves).
The Wave2 correction followed, and stopped near the previous Wave-iv low.
Wave3 has been underway since the 1.2483 low, and has formed as a very powerful extended 3rd wave. Wave-i of Wave3 formed as a leading diagonal (this count is validated by the fact that each up-leg in the diagonal subdivided in 5-waves, while each down-leg was in 3-waves); Wave-ii was a sharp ABC correction; Wave-iii was a typical extended third wave; and Wave-iv was a triangle. We are now in Wave-v.
There are three indicators that suggest we are within 50pips of a top:
- 1) price has breached the top of the Elliot wave channel in a typical final throwover
- 2) Wave-v of Wave3 would equal 38.2% of Wave3's length at 1.5646
- 3) daily RSI(14) is at it's highest level in the past 4 years