The INDU bulls are weakening

The Dow Industrials appear ready to start another downtrend. The dead-cat rally from 10,827 has been very choppy and looks much to much like a correction rather than the start of a new bull market. I think we will see new trend lows in the coming weeks, and market breadth (ADV/DEC) supports this notion.

The $INDU daily chart above shows that after a strong decline on increasing volume (to form Wave-a of WaveC from the 10/07 top), price has corrected choppily upwards on decreasing volume. A very nice 3-wave pattern has emerged, but I would wait for a break of the rising trendline on heavy volume before aggressively shorting.

The 1h chart above shows that Wave-c in this small uptrend appears to have formed as an ending diagonal. This very bearish pattern will result in accelerated selling once the lower trendline is broken. Notice that the last leg of the diagonal briefly broke the upper trendline, but the bulls were not able to maintain that breakout. This is typical of ending diagonals.

Finally, this is the chart of the 5- and 10-day moving average of the NYSE ADV/DEC indicator. Notice that fewer stocks participated in second leg of the rally as opposed to the first leg. This is similar to the pattern exhibited in May as the market was topping. The rally could extend and break these divergences, but that is why I am waiting for a trendline break on the Dow before going short.

No comments: