Oil, Nat Gas, and Metals may be near a bottom

I think the commodity sector may be near a short term bottomed, based on charts of several commodities. I last posted about oil here. Essentially, it looks like there could be a bit of a last bit of weakness followed by a decent rally in all the charts listed below.

Notice on the USO daily chart above that selling volume has been declining in this Wave-c from $119.17. It appears that the sell-off is losing momentum. Since price is nearing a long term support trendline, as well as a previous support/resistance level around $90, I would expect a decent bounce from there.

I'm showing the daily chart for UNG (natural gas) because it is bullish, and UNG is well correlated with USO. The incredible decline in natgas has formed in 5-waves, so an upward correction is imminent.

This is the 2h chart of UNG, and I am highlighting it because of the strong MACD divergence. Wave-v could be forming as an ending diagonal, so perhaps we may see one more low before the downtrend is exhausted.

The two charts above are GLD and SLV, respectively. Notice that both metals are holding in well defined channels. They are also nearing the Wave-C=Wave-A levels of roughly $80 for GLD and $14 for SLV. It will be interesting to see if they can bounce from here. Based on energy being bullish, I would bet on a rally in metals as well.

No comments: