8/19/2008

Trade # 15: EUR/USD Long (Update)

I last posted about this trade here. I was filled at 1.4670, and it looks like 1.4629 could be a short term low. I am moving my stop to 1.4625, right below this level. Therefore, my max risk is now 45 pips.

As you can see on the above 4h chart, it appears that Wave-V from 1.6037 is complete. Positive RSI and MACD divergence confirms this fact. Luckily, priced bounced off the long-term 38.2% fib (green horizontal line), as well as the long-term rising trendline (green sloped line), keeping my stop safe. At a minimum, I would expect price to test 1.4950 before dropping signifcantly: the 23.6% fibo, as well as the weekly R1 and Monthly S2 pivots reside in this area, and should provide decent resistance. That being said, however, price could correct to the 50% fib around 1.5300. I will likely continue to trail my stop if the trade continues to go my way.

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