Another look at SPX

I last posted about SPX here. The market has made marginal new highs since then, but the structure is still bearish in my opinion. I still think we could see new bear market lows.

An alternate wave count from the 1576 high shows 5-waves down. 5-waves down is normally not a terminal pattern for a trend; instead, one can expect, at a minimum, another 5-wave decline. The rally that has ensued from the 1256 low has been very choppy, and has subdivided into 3-waves, which is corrective. This sets up the stage for another 5-wave decline.

Also, notice the MACD divergence: back in March, the confirmed divergence preceded a nice rally. Now, we are seeing bearish MACD divergence, which should precede a decline.

I am open to the possibility of a 1450-55 print, as this would be where Wave-c = Wave-a, as well as where the 61.8% fibo lies. However, given yesterday's strong hammer candle, followed by confirmation today, I think this scenario is unlikely.

The NYSE Advance/Decline numbers continue to diverge with the new trend highs in the SPX. Fewer stocks have been fueling the rally. In the past, this divergence has led to counter-trend moves. This is nice confirmation for my overall thesis.

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