5/04/2008

Another bearish-looking chart (GOOG)

I noticed an interesting pattern on GOOG's chart today, and I think it may also be near a short to medium term top. I would consider shorting GOOG with a stop above $615 or so.

Back in December, it looks like GOOG finished its uptrend with an ending diagonal that could be a truncated 5th wave. Then, it started an impulse downtrend (i.e. in 5-waves). It has since retraced nearly 61.8% of that 5-wave move. This upward move could be counted in 5-waves, but I prefer the 3-wave perspective because Wave-a (412-->485) was in 3-waves.

A strong indicator for reversal is the "Dark Cloud Cover" candle pattern (circled). This highly reliable configuration occurs when the most recent candle opens above the previous candle's close, but then closes near the previous candle's open. Considering the higher volume, I am liking this setup for a short.

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