5/20/2008

10-yr Treasury Note may lose more yield

I have not studied interest rates extensively, but I saw an interesting Elliot Wave pattern on TNX, the yield for the 10-year Treasury Note. Based solely on the pattern, I think TNX may have another decent drop, probably taking out the low set in January.

You can see a clear 5-wave drop, which has now been retraced by a 3-wave flat correction. The 3-3-5 subdivision of Waves A, B, and C matches the typical structure of these corrective waves. It looks like the last upmove in WaveC is an ending diagonal, so a break below the small trendline should kick off the next leg down.
Since October, TNX has been well correlated with SPX, so this lends additional evidence to my case for another decline in the stock market.



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