2/03/2008

EUR/USD short trade

I am taking a short trade on the EUR/USD @ 1.4790, with a stop @ 1.4950. My target is the 1.4400-1.4500 zone.

Friday's reversal was interesting because it happened on poor employment data. This price action formed a nice bearish engulfing candle. As well, MACD divergence seems to be forming, which would indicate another drop in prices. Finally, it looks like a triangle is forming on the daily chart. There should be one more leg down to the lower trendline, and then a thrust through 1.50.


On the 2-hr chart, notice the strong MACD divergence. Also, notice how the rise from 1.4364 was choppy instead of in a clear 5-wave pattern. I think this means we have another decline to go before the bull trend resumes in full.

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