2/24/2008

EUR/USD Long Entry

I am going to take a long trade at 1.4775 with a stop at 1.4690.

My elliot wave analysis is fairly similar to before. It looks like Wave1 may have taken the form of a leading diagonal. Wave2 unfolded as a fairly standard 3-wave pattern, temporarily breaking the trendline of the diagonal. I now believe Wave3 is underway, and it appears that it may be subdividing.

My plan is to go long on a Waveii of Wave3 retracement. The weekly Pivot Point lies at 1.4767, as does the 38.2% retracement level. Also, should this retracement occur in 3-waves, WaveC would equal WaveA at 1.4771. Thus, my entry point is 1.4775. My stop will be below the 61.8% retracement at 1.4690.

My target is in the 1.5000-1.5500 zone. Should price reach 1.5075, I will move my stop to 1.4950. I will also be on the lookout for any high-volume downside moves, because I have an alternate Wave count that is potentially bearish.

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