SPX Outlook

Today's employment report made the market plumment, adding to the bad news and bearish sentiment of the past few months. However, I believe we are near a market bottom.

On this first chart (SPX weekly), you can see my Elliot Wave count since the start of the 2002 bull market. I believe that the 5th wave has yet to materialize, and 5th waves most often mean new highs.

This second chart is a close up (SPX daily) of Wave4. It appears to be forming as a triangle. This supports the thesis of a new high because triangles almost always breakout in the direction of the larger trend. Also, WaveE of the triangle is breaking through the lower trendline, possibly indicating a new bear trend. However, this is actually a rather common occurence for the final leg of triangles; it washes out the last few weak holders before the strong up move (however, should price fall below WaveC, I would revise my wave count).

Finally, on the very short-term 3rd chart, you can see an ending diagonal forming. These indicate exhaustion in the recent down-trend, and usually lead to explosive countertrend moves. This notion is strengthened by the accompanying MACD-divergence.

Even though I think SPX will hit new highs in the next few weeks/months, I think this will be the final rally in this bull market. Triangles are terminal, meaning they precede the final move in the larger trend. A 5th wave thrust to new highs would therefore be followed by a long correction (20% of so).