
4/30/2008
NASDAQ 100 (QQQQ) Short

4/29/2008
EUR/USD Trade (#7) Short

I believe the correction to this downmove is still ongoing. It looks like it'll form as an irregular flat, which should bring the price above the Wave-a top. MACD and RSI divergence indicate a temporary bottom, as does the Monthly pivot point which lies at 1.5556. Also, price often hits the Weekly pivot point (1.5721) before resuming the main trend.
I am looking to short around 1.5720 due to overlapping resistance in this area:
- 1.5730: 1.382*Wave-a
- 1.5722: 38.2% fibo
- 1.5721: Weekly pivot point
- 1.5706: Wave4 high
My stop will be above the 50% fibo.
Closing out ABX
4/25/2008
Gold stocks update

4/24/2008
EUR/USD Trade (#6) Short Update
Price broke through the diagonal triangle very nicely. Too bad I didn't take advantage of that run. Jaime Saettele said it best in his EUR/USD post today here: "...markets typically do not allow many people in at major turns. In other words, many will wait for a larger correction that never happens." I suppose my best strategy yesterday would have been to short on the trendline break; lesson learned. Either way, I don't think it's smart to chase this move. I can see 5-waves down on the 30m chart, so I am going to wait for a correction to the trendline bottom before attempting another short entry.
I think it's important to note that retail traders finally flipped to net long. Now 54% of traders are long. Man, they are getting in at such a cheap price now!
4/23/2008
EUR/USD Trade (#6) Short (It's looking pretty!)

The 8hr chart shows the count from the Wave-iv of Wave3 low from the daily chart above. We are in the final wave of this bull run; the ending diagonal is clear, price has obeyed the trendlines, and price has formed marginal all-time highs on RSI and MACD divergence. Diagonal triangles portend sharp countertrend moves.
The 1hr chart shows what I have been waiting for to signal the end of the uptrend: from the 1.6018 peak, there is now a clear 5-wave decline. Since Wave2 often retraces a significant portion of Wave1, I am looking to short in the 61.8%-->78.6% fibo range. Very strong resistance lies around 1.5970: there is 1) the 78.6% fibo at 1.5777; 2) the Weekly R1 pivot point at 1.5971; and 3) the Monthly R1 pivot point at 1.5967. Thus my entry is below this resistance, and my stop is above what I believe to be a multi-week of multi-month high.
I may be asking for a bit too much out of this Wave2 retracement. If I see shallower retracing tomorrow, I may adjust my entry lower.
The cherry on top of the bearish theme is that retail traders went from 31% long to 44% long in just one day. The end is near!
4/21/2008
BIDU looks toppy

4/17/2008
CNEH Short Term Top Possible


EUR/USD Trade (#5) Long Update
4/16/2008
Gold stocks could still drop
KGC's pattern isn't as clear as ABX's (below). I am still not ruling out the possiblity of a new trend low, however.
Similar to KGC, ABX formed an ending diagonal and then dropped sharply. It is now correcting this drop is a shallow flag pattern. If price can stay contained within the channel, I will look to short this stock.
EUR/USD Trade (#5) Long Update
4/15/2008
EUR/USD Trade (#5) Long Update
4/14/2008
EUR/USD Trade (#5) Long

After finishing Wave-e with yesterday's gap down, price rallied 200 pips in a clear 5-wave advance. I believe price has yet to finish correcting this upmove, as first waves in a bullish sequence are usually retraced significantly.
I see the following support levels in the 1.5750-1.5780 range:
- 1.5788: Weekly pivot point
- 1.5777: 50% fib level
- 1.5771: Wave-iv low
- 1.5762: Monthly M3 pivot point
- 1.5755: WaveC = WaveA
- 1.5752: 61.8% fib level
- 1.5751: Wave-iv of iv low
With this much support, I doubt the price will head much lower. My stop will be below this level. A nice confirmation for going long is the fact that only 35% of retail traders are now long.
4/10/2008
EUR/USD Short Trade (#4) Update
4/08/2008
EUR/USD Short Trade (#4)


4/07/2008
EUR/USD Short Trade (#3) Update
This recent surge through 1.5772 was unexpected, and has muddled the wave count. I will sit on the sidelines until a clearer setup arises.
4/06/2008
EUR/USD Short Trade (#3) Update

4/04/2008
Is Gold done Correcting?


4/03/2008
EUR/USD Short Trade (#3)

I am looking at the 1.5765 range as potential resistance for several reasons:
- 1) the Monthly M3 pivot point resides at 1.5762
- 2) the 61.8% fibo is at 1.5767;
- 3) if WaveC = 1.618*WaveA (a common relationship), WaveC would end at 1.5774.
My stop is above the Wave2 high.
4/02/2008
EUR/USD Short Trade (#2) Update

CNEH Technicals (Update)

4/01/2008
EUR/USD Short Trade (#2)

The 15-min chart shows a nice 5-wave bearish pattern from 1.5895. My plan is to go short on a correction. There are 3 levels of resistance around 1.5680-85: 1) the 38.2% fibo of 1.5340-->1.5895; 2) the 38.2% fibo of 1.5895-->1.5562; and 3) the Wave4 high. Therefore, I will take a short trade in that range with a stop just above.
SWC (Stillwater Mining) Update
