4/01/2008

EUR/USD Short Trade (#2)

I will take a short trade at 1.5683, stop @ 1.5713. My initial target is 1.5340, but I suspect price could go lower.

On the 1-hr chart, it appears that the move since the 1.5901 high has been corrective. The drop to 1.5340 occured in 7-waves, as did the the rally to 1.5895. These patterns are both indicative of a flat correction. I now suspect a 5-wave decline to at least 1.5340 will follow to finish the 3-3-5 pattern. There was clear MACD and RSI divergence at the top, which is bearish.


The 15-min chart shows a nice 5-wave bearish pattern from 1.5895. My plan is to go short on a correction. There are 3 levels of resistance around 1.5680-85: 1) the 38.2% fibo of 1.5340-->1.5895; 2) the 38.2% fibo of 1.5895-->1.5562; and 3) the Wave4 high. Therefore, I will take a short trade in that range with a stop just above.

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