BIDU looks toppy

BIDU (Baidu.com) has been a pretty sweet long play over the past month, rising nearly 75% from it's $200 low. I think it may be near a top that could lead to a new trend low, or, at best case, a decline to $280.

On the daily chart above, it looks like the drop from $429 to $237 was the first ABC down leg. Since then, an irregular flat correction unfolded. Wave-b dropped below the previous trend low, and occured in 3-waves; Wave-c rose above the Wave-a high and has occured in 5-waves.

The 5-wave pattern may make some people think that a new bullish trend has begun. However, when looked at from the perspective of the larger formation, I think that the notion of new trend lows (below $200) is not far-fetched, as this would complete a larger ABC correction from $429.

My plan is to go short around here with an initial target at $280, and a longer term target at $160, the low back in August, 2007. I might unload a few of my Puts at $280, and ride the rest.

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