The case for a gold rally

Gold is looking bullish.


The chart above is 10yr chart with monthly candles. Note that price is sitting on strong support – an ascending trendline and a previous high. Also notice that volume has tapered off substantially in the past 1-2 years, a good sign indicating that selling pressure is waning.


The next chart, a 5yr weekly chart, shows that gold is completing wave-5 of an ending diagonal. Historically, these patterns are terminal and are followed by an explosive move in the opposite direction. Wave-3 of the ending diagonal should never be the shortest wave; thus Wave-5 should go no further than 1050, or else the pattern is invalid.

2015-07-26_Gold_COT  Finally, note that commercial traders are more net-long now than at any point in the past 10 years!

Combining all the evidence above with the bullish seasonality factor of August, I feel comfortable buying gold at these levels with a stop below 1050.


spf5 said...

Nice call. I used to follow Will Rahal, I haven't seen anything posted by him for years, I know he hung it up but wondered if maybe he got back into public forecasting. He was the best I ever saw. I was searching for him today when I came across your post. I could be mistaken but I believe you followed him also? Anyhow I'll keep an eye on your posts, excellent call so far on gold. I'm long too, but in the hole. Bought a month too early! spf5

Narayana said...

Thanks for the comment, spf5. I did follow Will Rahal and definitely enjoyed his commentary. He was awesome! When he stopped blogging, his son George started a blog, but he has since stopped as well (http://george-rahal.blogspot.com/).

Thanks for following my blog! I can't guarantee too much content, but I am happy with how my Gold analysis turned out.