Today is the day to short SLV

I’ve been waiting and watching for SLV’s typical blowoff move unfold. Today I took a short bet with it, buying Nov 27 Puts. This is obviously a short term play, but when parabolas reverse, the counter-move is usually very fast.


During a climax top, a stock leader that has risen for many months will suddenly take off and run up much faster than it has in any week since the start of its original move. On a weekly chart, the spread from the absolute low to the absolute high of the week in almost all examples will be wider than any price spread in any week so far.

- William O’Neil in The Successful Investor, pg. 80

Notice in the SLV weekly chart above that after rally for months on end, SLV has now blasted higher in a parabolic fashion. It is making it’s fastest gains of the entire move in the past two weeks.


On the daily chart, notice a few interesting features. First, about 5 days ago, SLV gapped way up and then rallied hard for three days. Then today, it gapped up once again. In O’neil’s book, chart after chart from the Nasdaq bubble shows this exact pattern, which indicates extreme bullishness that should reverse very soon.


Anonymous said...

WHat do you think on SLV here?

Narayana said...

Dunno, looks really strong. But I supposed I was open to the possibility a new high, so it's still within my realm of expectations.