3/02/2010

Bloggers are very bullish once again

Exhibit 1: http://tickersense.typepad.com/ticker_sense/2010/03/march-1st-blogger-sentiment-poll.html

Exhibit 2:

  • Carl Futia: bullish
  • White Magic: bullish
  • Kevin’s Market Blog: not updated, but posted that if stock trades above 50-day for several days, market should retest highs, I take this as bullish
  • Bespokeinvest: bullish, in regards to strong breadth argument
  • Slopeofhope: getting gloomy as a bear, turning bullish
  • Elliot Wave Lives On: starting to seriously consider the long-term bullish picture, after having expected a bear-market rally for 1 year
  • Gary’s Common Sense: bullish, expecting ‘third-leg’ of this bear-market rally
  • Evilspeculator: neutral/bearish
  • X-trends: bearish

Clearly, the bulls are pretty numerous, but we haven’t even made new highs yet.

030210_spy_daily

Now, look at the chart above. I posted here that the market’s rhythm has changed, because it’s been 18 trading days with no new high (previously, the market always made new highs with 8-10 days of bottoming). Also, you can clearly see that volume has been much lower on the rally, compared to the previous sell-off. Even if we do make new highs, I’m shorting the whole way up. But I think the odds for a drop below 1040 are high.

2 comments:

The Hook said...

What do you think about the all time new high in breadth (A/D line)

Anna-Lisa said...

Nice post