More evidence… this time it’s different

I posted yesterday why I thought that the market’s recent drop isn’t just another normal correction. Here I’m presenting further evidence that we may see 1040 before seeing new highs.


The chart above highlights the number of days it took to make new trend highs after each substantial correction in the past year’s bull market. Notice that each new leg up took 8-10 days to reach new highs. Compare that to now: we’re on day 12 since the low at 1040, and not even close to new highs. Also, notice that on the daily chart (as opposed to the weekly chart I posted yesterday), it is also clear that volume expanded on the downturn, and is shrinking on the upturn.

These facts tell me that the rhythm of this bull market has changed, and that the bear may be making a real comeback shortly.


Dave Narby said...

Pretty sideways action today. And the bulls are still bullish (AFAIKT), despite some talk of bearishness out there.

I'm talking my book, but what you've observed (and a lot more where that came from) seems to argue for lower prices.

jg said...

Nice analysis, N-. Makes sense.

But, I've lost lots of money these last six months trying to short at the top. So, I will not jump in short, yet.

I think I will jump back in short once we get some economic unraveling in Europe or here in the U.S.

job said...