Some long term charts

Taking a longer term perspective reminds us of the bigger picture in the market, and helps to prevent the general sentiment from clouding analysis. Right now, I would say the market sentiment is quite bullish, with many company releasing better-than-expected earnings. However, on the back of 7 straight weeks of gains, I think it's time to remember to "sell the rallies" in a bear market.

The 20y DJIA chart above shows that price broke through two very long-term trendlines that had been supporting the market for decades. The market has now retraced to the intersection point of these lines, implying the selloff should resume in the coming weeks/months.

The 10y QQQQ chart above shows that price has been controlled by a descending channel. Notice that we're currently at the upper boundary of this channel, and we've been rallying on decreasing volume. Previous support has also become resistance in the 33.50 zone. I think this implies a drop to new lows at the channel bottom.

The chart above shows the Advance-decline volume trends. This indicator shows whether the underlying market-breadth exists to support futher upside. Notice that adv/dec volume has been trending down as the market is making marginal new highs. In the past, this sort of divergence led to declines.

The 10y AAPL chart shows a very nice controlling trendline that was breached to the downside in Fall 2008. Price has since recovered to the bottom of the trendline and dropping volume, telling me that there won't be enough strength to break back above this line. If the market believed AAPL's medium-term potential was as strong as the earnings release would have you believe, I think we would have seen higher volume on this rally.

GS is bumping up against its 2000 highs after rallying 160% from its lows. Are the banks really doing that well?