Lest we forget....

I don't think anything has changed in the bigger picture. Sentiment is too bullish and there are negative divergences emerging. According to expert analyst Willl Rahal, the NASDAQ should underperform in this last bear leg, so I'm adding to my short position via QQQQ Sep 09 31 puts. 

Above is the 5y, weekly chart of QQQQ. It appears that we're nearly done with a Wave-4 flat correction from the November lows. Using a 1:1 Wave5:Wave1 projection, we should bottom around $18, posting MACD-divergence to set up a nice rally.

We're nearing the upper trendline in what I believe is an ending diagonal on SPX. We should have one final downtrend to complete the diagonal. This is congruent with the analysis on QQQQ above.

The chart above shows the ADV/DEC count with a 5- and 10-dma. Notice that while SPX is making a new high today, the 5/10dma's are making lower highs. This divergence indicates that the past 2-day rally has had lower participation and indicates an impending selloff.

Finally, take a look at the 3-year Put/Call chart ($CPC). Somehow, while we're still down 46% from our 2007 high, market participants are as bullish as they were at the beginning of 2007 (when we were still in a bull-market). This optimism tells me that we have further down to go. A market bottom should have a high Put/Call ratio, not the opposite.


Win said...

Thanks, brothers. I agree that we are at a ST top, but I don't know if we are at the end of this little rally. I do think that your September Q calls are a good idea, but I would save some capital and continue legging in north of 850. All the best!

Narayana said...

I got smacked trying to short too early, as I'm sure lots of other people did too (I'm still working on the discipline to leg in slowly). All the best to you as well!

Anonymous said...

good analysis as most EWer's think wave 5 has ended.