Trade # 14: EUR/USD Short

I am going to short the EUR/USD @ 1.5805 and @ 1.5750, with a stop on both positions @ 1.5830. My target is 1.5700 and below.

The 8h chart above shows that the EUR/USD has been in a range for several months now, and price has just reversed from the upper end of this range. It looks like we could be seeing a 3-wave flat correction from the 1.6018 high reached in April. Wave-A and -B have completed (in the expected 3-wave pattern) and WaveC appears underway. WaveC normally unfolds in 5 sharp waves, and Wave-iii looks ready to commence in earnest. Notice that price has broken the multi-week trendline that was supporting price.

The 2h chart above shows that price is being supported by the 61.8% retracement level of the rally from 1.5610-->1.6040, as well as an alternate trendline that has not yet been breached. There may be a small correction to 1.5810, where several layers of resistance lie (Weekly M2 pivot, Monthly M3 pivot, Wave-iv high of 1.5943-->1.5756, 50% fib). My first entry is set just below this resistance, with a stop right above. In the event that price rises higher and stops me out, the second entry will allow me to go short on a break of the supporting trendline and fibo level.

Additional bearish facts: 1) yesterday was a bearish engulfing pattern on very high volume (futures); 2) retail traders increased long positions by 48% in 12 hours.

No comments: