Trade # 14: EUR/USD Short (Update)

Update at 10:55pm CDT on 7/30/08: I am out for +167 pips profit. I last posted about this trade here. The EUR/USD is sitting on many levels of support, so I hope to see an upward correction which I can short.

The daily chart above shows a trendline that has been supporting price for nearly a year. It would be fairly surprising to see price break through this line on its first go, so I feel it makes sense to bet on an upward correction.

The 4-hr chart shows a nice 5-wave decline (which are normally followed by 3-waves up) from 1.6037. Notice how each wave was bound by the fibs of the 1.5283-->1.6037 rally. Price is currently resting at the confluence of the 61.8% fib, the trendline from the daily chart, and the descending trendline which connects the wave lows. Couple this with near-complete MACD divergence, and it's easy to conclude that price is going up from here.

Having said that, I feel it was very difficult to decide to close out this short trade. Given the event risk in the next couple days, EUR/USD could plunge through the support and accelerate its decline as a Wave-3 extension. If these support levels are broken, I would expect price to reach 1.5283 fairly quickly.

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