7/13/2011

USD/CHF Long-term Update

I’ve been quite wrong about the USD/CHF. From my initial entry, I’m down about 1200 pips.

However, if you think the USD/CHF will continue dropping forever, think again. On a very long-term time frame, it is approaching very strong support.

071311_usdchf_monthly

On the 20y monthly chart above, notice that from 2004 through 2010, USD/CHF consolidated in a picture perfect triangle. Each subwave was in a 3-wave structure, and price held within accurately defined trendlines.

Since 2010, we’ve seen the characteristic “thrust” out of the triangle to the downside. A typical target is normally the 100% extension of the height of the triangle, which is around .8000. Also interesting is that the 50% extension of the previous down wave from 2000-2004 is right @ .8200 or so. Because triangles are precede the final move in a trend, I believe we’ll see a basing pattern and subsequent reversal in the coming months. Price should stay above .79-.80 for this thesis to pan out.

10 comments:

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agriculture investments said...

Right now, the easiest trend is to the upset. But, if there is no solution to the Euro, there will be a huge trend down.

green investing said...

We are close to the point where there will be a huge rush into both USD and CHF and both will gap up shortly.

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