4/15/2010

Taking another stab at the short side

I believe the market is near a short-term top (that could to be a longer-term top) based on highly bullish sentiment and exhaustive characteristics of this rally. I am looking to short the market buy purchasing TWM (Russell 2000 2x Inverse ETF) around $18.

041510_cpc_daily

First, check out the Put/call ratio chart above. Notice that the ratio has spike to extreme bullish readings. Options traders are highly bullish following the last few days of the market rallying.

041510_iwm_weekly

Notice on the IWM chart above (5y weekly chart) that price is nearing a major resistance level. Also, notice that the rally is in 7 waves (ABC-X-ABC)--this is normally a corrective setup. IWM has rallied more than 100% in 13 months with only small corrections in between. The time is ripe for a major correction.

041510_iwm_daily

Finally, on the daily IWM chart above, notice that after a massive, relentless run, the market gapped higher and rallied hard. These kind of gaps can often indicate exhaustion when the happen after an extended run, and I believe now is the time to capitalize on this setup.

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