Shorting EUR/USD between 1.50 and 1.60

Dollar sentiment appears to be hittings rock bottom. Check out this link on Carl Futia's blog, as well as this post on G-Rahal's blog for good examples. In addition, the EUR/USD is nearing strong resistance. I think we should get a retest of 1.25, and ultimately, a drop to .9-1.0. Thus, I will be scaling in shorts between 1.49 and 1.60.

You can see here that there are three strong trendlines that have been breached to the downside. They should act as good resistance to further gains. However, if price closes above the lower trendline (where price currently stands) for two months, I will close out the trade.

This chart above shows the COT data for the EUR. Notice that commercial traders are at bearish extremes for the EUR. Not a good sign for strength in my opinion.

Similarly, Commercial traders are holding highly-long positions in the Dollar. The combination of short EUR and long USD makes a down-move in EUR/USD more probable.

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