I've learned a lot from Atilla's xTrends blog, including trendline analysis. Here is my attempt at some longer-term analysis which further supports the notion that current market action is just a bear market rally.
As you can see from the above weekly SPX chart, there is a very long-term trendline which has been controlling price very effectively. Given that we're testing the underside of this line, risk-reward favors the bears.
The daily DJI chart above shows a decade-long channel that has been controlling price action. Once again, we broke through this channel and are now retesting the underside. We've only seen a muted reaction from restesting this trendline, thus far. I find it hard to believe that we break back into this channel on the first try.
Given how strong the market has been, however, it makes sense to consider a mildly bullish scenario that holds within the broader picture. In the COMPX chart above, there is the possibility that we could have an ending diagonal forming. This is in line with the charts above, because price would be hugging the trendline vs. breaking above. Also, it would set up the stage for a very sharp decline later on. Best of all, it would burn out the remaining bears in a slow upward grind, creating the sentiment extremes for a top.