CHF/JPY Update

I have been accumulating a short position in CHF/JPY between 85-90 for the past couple months. You can see my original analysis and post here. I still think that 92.50 will contain price action, and we should see a sharp selloff in the near future, so I'm holding my positions.

You can see on the 5y daily chart that a very long-term trendline is currently containing price action. Furthermore, the upper trendline of an ascending wedge should provide a second level of defense if price does break significantly above 90. 

I now think the rally from the 75 low could actually be a leading diagonal (because of the 5-wave structure). However, before price starts an uptrend in earnest, I believe we'll see a very sharp Wave-2 selloff, in which I'll be able to close out my short positions.

No comments: