3/25/2009

Go short RUT around 435-445

I think the RUT will make one new marginal high around 435-445 before starting a precipitous final drop to new bear market lows.

Notice my elliot wave interpretation above. The market appears to be finishing a 3-wave corrective  pattern from 342. Wave-C is clearly unfolding as an ending diagonal. Each subwave is an abc and overlaps the previous wave. To complete this diagonal, I think the market will rally to 440 or so (which is where Wave-C = Wave-A), as well as the trendline resistance of the ending diagonal. Once this diagonal breaks, watch out below. These patterns are reversed extremely quickly. I think this will start the final leg of this bear market, and prices will quickly return to 340 and lower.

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