I am shorting EUR/GBP .9250 or above with no stop. I think it is near the end of a climax top right now. As I posted
here, I mentioned that I would short on a high range day, as these normally indicate a top after an extended trending move.
Notice the trading range for today is nearly at an all-time high. This is happening after a prolonged and persistent rally, indicating a climax top. Anyone who still thought they were going to call a top must have been washed out by now. This is obviously the hardest time to go short, but I believe it is right.
The 8hr chart above shows the an extended 5th wave, culminating in a massive short squeeze. I believe this chart is nearly ready to roll over.
Notice the trading range for today is nearly at an all-time high. This is happening after a prolonged and persistent rally, indicating a climax top. Anyone who still thought they were going to call a top must have been washed out by now. This is obviously the hardest time to go short, but I believe it is right.
The 8hr chart above shows the an extended 5th wave, culminating in a massive short squeeze. I believe this chart is nearly ready to roll over.
5 comments:
great post. Any thoughts on eur usd?
Catherine
I was thinking the same about EUR/USD in terms of a climax top, and then it rallied another 300 pips! This market is insane, but it will always work to screw over as many people as possible. Oh well, I guess I have more to learn.
You are right about the blow off top in eur gbp - just one thought and I know it is difficult but try to sell after the climax after it is always running down the hill on the other side.
The danger of your approach is what happens in Indonesia in the Asian crisis happens and it carries on going even faster. ie Rupiah moved from 2000 to 16000 to the usd and didnt stop at 10,000 as people thought - although it did go back to 10000 and stayed there for the next 10 years.
FX market is looing increasingly illiquid and unhinged. Expecting same on spx soon.
Usd zar blow outs also are worth looking at.
I am starting to wonder if gbp will continue to weaken and start to be a new Iceland.
That is a long term view. Think you are right on the short term.
Catherine
I am long yen after having sold a lot of gbp cash last year. I originally had a target of 180, then 140. I am now wondering if 120 is in sight.
Expecting further usd strength and renewed stock market weakenss next year. SPX target 500-600.
Not sure if that fits with your thoughts.
Catherine
I think I agree with that analysis.
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