11/20/2008

SPX Crash!!!

Well, we did get a drop below 800 after all. All hope is not lost, yet. If the market reverses quickly tomorrow and heads back above 800, I think today's action could have been a fakeout right before a multi-week uptrend. You can see my last post on the SPX here.

Take a look at the chart above. It sure looks like a nice breakout to start a new uptrend, right? Well, I can also see an ending diagonal formation, which is terminal. The last leg of an ending diagonal can sometimes overthrow the upper trendline in order to fake investors out and then reverse. I think this scenario is valid as long as price reverses quickly and/or stays above 723 on SPX (by the way, the above chart is an inverted SPX chart). Flipping the chart allows one to maintain perspective on a move. While sentiment would have you believe that we are headed down forever, the above chart is heartening. The Wave count shows that we should be near a top (bottom in SPX) and MACD is diverging with price. I think the key lies in a quick reversal tomorrow.

4 comments:

Anonymous said...

your chart image is weird..

Flatlander said...

With Friday an Options Expiration day, nothing goes as planned. I believe your theory for a nice rally will have to wait until at least next week. With the short holiday week, the rally may wait until the first of December.

Narayana said...

Well, we got a close at 800 today. If the ending diagonal is the right count, we should head up real fast now.

Narayana said...

The diagonal triangle has been broken, so price should continue to rally. I'm a bit suspicious since volume is drying up on this rally, but so far all signs point to more upside.