Trade # 20: EUR/USD Short

I am going short EUR/USD @ 1.4150, stop @ 1.4230. My target is1.3900. However, if price breaks below that level, there could be a strong continuation selloff, so I will trail my stop if the trade goes in my favor.

Notice that price bounced off the green trendline. This is a multi-year trendline that is drawn by connecting the Jan '02 and Nov '05 lows. It looks like this level could be broken, as the rally was only in 3-waves. There is clear negative MACD and RSI divergence, and retail traders switched back to a net long position. I would expect a drop to at least 1.3900, and a close below 1.3850 could cause the price to plummet. I am shorting on a break of the blue trendline (which would also indicate a breach of the weekly pivot point at 1.4176. My stop is above this price region.

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