Trade # 11: EUR/USD Short

I am going short the EUR/USD @ 1.5538, stop @ 1.5590. My target is below 1.5300.

As I was anticipating, the pair rallied after I was stopped out in trade # 10. It has reached the 50% fib level and bounced off strongly. The rally from 1.5302 was in 3 waves, which is corrective. I am now looking for a drop below 1.5300 to complete WaveC from the 1.6018 peak.

The 30m chart shows the 3-waves up in greater detail. You can clearly see 5-waves down from the 1.5585 top, which means at a minimum, there will be another 5-wave decline. My strategy is to take a short position at the 61.8% fib (1.5540) level of this decline. The Monthly pivot point @ 1.5552 should continue to provide resistance. My stop is a few ticks above the 1.5585 high.

I remain bearish because retail traders are staying net long. There are sure to be lots of stops below 1.5460-70, as price has tested this level many times and looks to be strong support. At a minimum, price should drop below this level.

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