XLF nearing a top

I think XLF should print a top in the $14-16 range and then start a downtrend back to the $10 range. I will start scaling in short positions in this zone.

Notice on this long-term chart that XLF is backtesting some strong trendlines. These should provide overhead resistance.

On the daily chart, it definately looks like XLF is carving out an ABC, especially considering that price busted above $13 without a pullback beforehand. Furthermore, price is going parabolic into WaveC which tells me that sentiment is becoming too bullish. We could see price rally into the $16 zone, but there should be a $3-6+ correction soon.

Shorting NZD/USD

I think the US Dollar is nearing a bottom (as I posted here) as many people are bearish and few are bullish. I'm trading this speculation by shorting NZD/USD in the .67-.72 range with a target at .50 and below.

You can see in the 10-year chart above that there is good resistance in the .67 to .72 range. We've had a nice ABC-flat rally since prices tanked back in 2008, and based on the dollar, I think this currency could be ready start the next leg in its downtrend.