5/28/2009

Taking some profits on CNEH

CNEH has had an awesome run over the past two months, rallying from 1.25 to 3.48 in just three months. I suggested going long around 1.50, as you can see in this post. I am unloading about half of my position at 3.25 today, as I think we'll see corrective action over the next few weeks/months.

Notice the clear 5-wave rally. I believe this rally should complete Wave1 out a new uptrend that should take CNEH above $5. I think we will soon see consolidation for Wave2 on decreasing volume. I will try to add to my position on a drop to the $2-$2.50 range.

5/21/2009

Precious metals getting ready to explode upwards

I've been think bearish on precious metals for the past few months, (as seen here), but I think the basing pattern we've seen recently indicates that metals could rally further. I went long AGQ (2x bullish silver ETF) today with a stop at $40.05. My target is $60-65, but if things pick up very fast in the next week or two, I will hold longer and trail my stop.

The daily chart of AGQ shows a beautiful cup and handle basing pattern. Notice the decreasing volume on the downswing, and the expanding volume (especially on the up-days) on the upswing. Then, there was decreased volume during the handle. Finally, price has broken out to the upside on above-average volume. This is a very bullish pattern and implies much higher prices for silver

The chart above shows the COT data for silver. The blue line is the 78-week index for commercial traders. As you can see, this indicator has been quite accurate for catching tops and bottoms. Currently, when silver was bottoming around 1200 (12/oz), the COT index reached close to 100. This indicates that silver is likely getting ready to explode higher.