The daily chart sets up the whole bearish theme (I last posted about the longer-term picture for EUR/USD here). Wave3 appears to have completed at 1.6018. Price has hugged the upper trendline in a typical throwover, forming a fifth-wave ending diagonal. Coupled with strong RSI and MACD divergence, the outlook for the next few weeks/months is definately bearish.
The 8hr chart shows the count from the Wave-iv of Wave3 low from the daily chart above. We are in the final wave of this bull run; the ending diagonal is clear, price has obeyed the trendlines, and price has formed marginal all-time highs on RSI and MACD divergence. Diagonal triangles portend sharp countertrend moves.
The 1hr chart shows what I have been waiting for to signal the end of the uptrend: from the 1.6018 peak, there is now a clear 5-wave decline. Since Wave2 often retraces a significant portion of Wave1, I am looking to short in the 61.8%-->78.6% fibo range. Very strong resistance lies around 1.5970: there is 1) the 78.6% fibo at 1.5777; 2) the Weekly R1 pivot point at 1.5971; and 3) the Monthly R1 pivot point at 1.5967. Thus my entry is below this resistance, and my stop is above what I believe to be a multi-week of multi-month high.
I may be asking for a bit too much out of this Wave2 retracement. If I see shallower retracing tomorrow, I may adjust my entry lower.
The cherry on top of the bearish theme is that retail traders went from 31% long to 44% long in just one day. The end is near!
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